“Most likely to proceed” is a ranking question, not a prediction market. The tracker already answers it in public, as of 11 September 2026: six Highly Credible names, all either approved or under construction, and seven Probable names, all still proposed.

That is the shortlist. It is not a guarantee.

The working set

Meta / Sturgeon is the only approved row, and the highest score (97). Master site permit, site preparation, a public capital commitment above C$13 billion, 250 MW contracted Capital Power supply, a dedicated 932 MW Greenlight plant with FID, and a 970 MW AESO Phase I load contract. The remaining risk is execution: initial service still depends on construction and interim power before the dedicated plant is in service. Watch vertical construction and first data-hall commissioning / 2028-29 service milestones.

eStruxture CAL-3 is the furthest along as an operating-style campus (score 95). Construction and municipal permits are confirmed. CoreWeave is the public anchor tenant and Phase 1 was reported sold out. The published 90 MW is facility power, not necessarily IT load. Watch commissioning and announced fall-2026 service.

Bitdeer Fox Creek has a completed groundbreaking, an approved 101.133 MW on-site gas plant, a 99 MW AESO interconnection, and a disclosed capital plan (score 88). Current planned workload is cryptocurrency, with AI/HPC optionality. Watch construction progress and Q4-2027 energization.

Three smaller Highly Credible rows are easy to over-read:

  • AHI Red Deer is ranked on the 10 MW Phase 1 now in foundations / M&E work, not on uncommitted 200 MW-plus ambitions.
  • K-Tech / Aurora is ranked on a 5 MW proof-of-concept under construction. The exact site is undisclosed. The 100-500 MW roadmap is not committed.
  • Prairie Sky Strathmore has initial retrofit/construction underway. The 50 MW figure is a full-build roadmap. Watch the first 2 MW phase.

If those three later phases never appear, the Highly Credible count does not automatically collapse. The ranked object was the evidenced phase.

The watchlist, not the shortlist

Probable means strong signals and at least one major gate unresolved. Keephills is the clearest example: a signed 230 MW Phase I load contract, existing generation and transmission at site, and TransAlta / CPP Investments / Brookfield as counterparties - with no data centre being built yet. That is why it is Probable rather than Highly Credible.

Beacon Heartland has an approved/amended master site development permit and grading. AUC power, FID, financing, anchor customer and equipment commitments remain outstanding. Beacon Indus has held a 1.494 GW power-plant AUC hearing without a final decision, FID, or data-hall development permits. Teton’s Northern Forge and Black Bear campuses, Diode Ventures’ Goldfinch park, and Mihta Askiy have more substance than an announcement, and still need the same class of gates.

Early-Stage and Speculative names can become real. They are not the 2026 proceeding set on present evidence.

Proceeding is not the default

Three inactive rows exist because serious concepts already failed in public:

  • Kineticor - Rocky View County rejected the required ASP in September 2025
  • Crusoe Crossfield / Lone Pine - municipal proposal withdrawn; related AESO requests cancelled
  • Synapse Olds - AUC denied the associated power plant in August 2026; the proponent will not proceed as proposed

Sponsor quality and a large MW concept were not enough.

This article does not assign a probability to each remaining proposed name, and it does not forecast how many of the 24 proposed rows will reach FID. For how the full stack is ranked, see Alberta pipeline 2026, ranked by credibility. For why power sits at the top of the model, see why power will decide the winners. For what happens after construction, see the operational readiness challenge.